Bin Laden's Message to the German People
For a week now, rumours have been circulating about a new video message from Osama bin Laden. Journalists with sources deep within the German intelligence apparatus told me that the message was imminent only last week. Now, it seems to have arrived.
The intention is very clear: Bin Laden wants to influence, or at least change the dynamics, of the German elections, which will take place on Sunday.
In the video Bin Laden urges Europeans to withdraw from Muslim land. Germany is not mentioned specifically, but the timing of the release and the German subtitles suggest that the intended audience clearly is the German electorate.
This comes on the back of a number of German language videos that have been posted by Al Qaeda in the past weeks. They are all saying the same thing: vote for withdrawal, or we will blow you up!
Views about the significance and meaning of the video differ. Some believe that, if Al Qaeda were actually capable of launching an attack, they would simply do so – the fact that there have been many announcements but no action is evidence of Al Qaeda's weakness.
Others, such as my friend Guido Steinberg at the Berlin based think tank SWP, are not so sure. Steinberg believes that Al Qaeda wouldn’t make such a fuss if there wasn’t any activity on the ground. In fact, I have it from good sources that the German authorities are concerned about three groups of potential plotters right now.
The parallels with the Madrid bombings in 2004 are clear, but shouldn't be overrated. Back in 2004, Al Qaeda launched its attacks just three days before the national elections, and seemed to change the outcome of the vote.
The difference in the German case is that none of the major parties are in favour of withdrawal. Only the small Left Party wants to get out, but it seems nearly inconceivable that people will vote for them in great numbers. People, in other words, have no real choice when it comes to expressing their disapproval about Afghanistan.
Osama’s message, therefore, is unlikely to have the desired effect he hopes it will have.
Comments
| Although Osama’s video may not have the desired effect he hopes it will have, I wonder (and worry) whether a large attack in Konduz this weekend resulting in significant German casualties will. Particularly since the Germans will be voting to renew their ISAF mandate later this fall. |
| Frank - 27 Sep 2009 (3:39) |
| Frank I think that could be a game-changer. Even though the major parties aren't in favor of withdrawal, most Germans are.
|
| Is - 28 Sep 2009 (13:53) |
| Frank and Is, you are right. It's important to know that the video message prior to Bin Laden's own warned of attacks in Germany for the two weeks AFTER the elections, which would be well in time for the renewal of the mandate. Let's see what happens (hopefully nothing), but it could definitely be a game-changer. |
| Peter - 28 Sep 2009 (20:51) |
| Lets say there is an attack in the coming weeks (godforbid). Do Germans understand that a withdrawal would only provide more proof for AQ and pals that they can coerce and intimidate powers into capitulation and dictate their foreign policy decisions? So, in other words...do they understand that a withdrawal/surrender would make things worse? |
| Is - 28 Sep 2009 (21:01) |
| You say that "none of the major parties are in favour of withdrawal". Could you explain what would happen then in the event of an attack?
Will Germany withdraw? Would the government call for a referendum on withdrawal? |
| Lisa S. - 29 Sep 2009 (10:09) |
| Well, now that the elections have passed without incident, what do you think? I know the threat was for the week's after the election as well, but at this point, one has to wonder what it could be seen to be changing...though a successful attack would show that they could still actually do something, which they haven't proved in a while. |
| raff - 29 Sep 2009 (11:26) |
| Germans Arrest Man Suspected of Spreading al-Qaida Propaganda, Procuring Explosives:
http://blog.taragana.com/n/germans-arrest-man-suspected-of-spreading-al-qaida-propaganda-procuring-explosives-185145/ |
| Tim Stevens - 03 Oct 2009 (10:00) |
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